Template:Comparison of influenzas and coronaviruses notable epidemics
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Notes
- 1889-90 flu, People infected (est.) number : please review source. There are two diverging statements. 20–60% vs 60% (45–70%). Which one is more relevant ?
- 1918 flu, people infected numbers (500 million), mortality rate (2~3%) contradict the deaths worldwite "20-100 million" statements. Review needed. Lead : Johnson NPAS, Mueller (2002) "Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918-1920 Spanish Influenza Pandemic".
- Kilbourne, Edwin D. (2006). "Influenza Pandemics of the 20th Century". Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 12 (1): 9–14. doi:10.3201/eid1201.051254. PMC 3291411. PMID 16494710. : considers 1918, 1957, 1968 as pandemic ; 1947 (H1N1), 1976 (H1N1), 1977 (H1N1) as pseudopandemic.
- Review and integrate exact values of transmisibility and severity from : Reed, Carrie; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Finelli, Lyn; Koonin, Lisa M.; Beauvais, Denise; Uzicanin, Amra; Plummer, Andrew; Bresee, Joe; Redd, Stephen C.; Jernigan, Daniel B. (2013). "Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics". Emerging Infectious Diseases. 19 (1): 85–91. doi:10.3201/eid1901.120124. ISSN 1080-6059. PMC 3557974. PMID 23260039.
- 2019-2020 flu season in the USA :
Table
Name | Date | Dur. | World pop. | Subtype | Reproduction rate | Infected (est.) | Deaths worldwide | Case fatality rate | Virality | Severity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1889–90 flu pandemic[4] | 1889–90 | 5y | 1.53 billion | Likely H3N8 or H2N2 | 2.10 (IQR, 1.9–2.4)[4] | 20–60%[4] (300–900 million) | 1 million | 0.10–0.28%[4] | Template:Unknown | Template:Unknown |
1918 Spanish flu[5] | 1918–20 | 3y | 1.80 billion | H1N1 | 1.80 (IQR, 1.47–2.27)[6] | 33% (500 million)[7] or >56% (>1 billion)[8] | 20[8][9]–100[10][11] million | 2–3%,[8] or ~4%, or ~10%[12] | 5[13] | ~7[13] |
Asian flu | 1957–58 | 3y | 2.90 billion | H2N2 | 1.65 (IQR, 1.53–1.70)[6] | >17% (>500 million)[8] | 1–4 million[8] | <0.2%[8] | 4[13] | ~3.8[13] |
Hong Kong flu | 1968–69 | 2y | 3.53 billion | H3N2 | 1.80 (IQR, 1.56–1.85)[6] | >14% (>500 million)[8] | 1–4 million[8] | <0.2%[8] | 4[13] | ~3[13] |
2009 swine flu pandemic[14][15] | 2009–10 | 2y | 6.85 billion | H1N1/09 | 1.46 (IQR, 1.30–1.70)[6] | 11-21% (0.7–1.4 billion)[16] | 151,700–575,400[17] | 0.03%[18] | 3[13] | ~2.2[13] |
Typical seasonal flu[t 1] | Every year | >500y | 7.75 billion | A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B, ... | 1.28 (IQR, 1.19–1.37)[6] | 5–15% (340 million – 1 billion)[19] 3–11% or 5–20%[20][21] (240 million–1.6 billion) |
290,000–650,000/year[22] | <0.1%[23] | 1~3[13] | 1~4[13] |
2019–20 seasonal flu[24][25][t 2] | 2019–20 | 6m | 7.75 billion | A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Victoria, A(H3N2) | Template:Unknown | 11%[t 2] (800 million; USA, 34-49 million[t 2]) | 0.45-1.2 million (USA: 20–52,000[t 2]) | ongoing | Template:Unknown | Template:Unknown |
COVID-19 pandemic[26] | 2019–20 | < 1y | 7.75 billion | SARS-CoV-2 | 2.2 (95% CI:1.4–3.9)[27][28]
2.68 (95% CI:2.47–2.86)[29] |
+0.5% (7,400,013[30][lower-alpha 1]) to 10% (770M)[31] | 417,133[30][lower-alpha 1] | Template:Percentage[30] | 5[13] | 4~7[13] |
Notes |
References
- ↑ Hilleman MR (August 2002). "Realities and enigmas of human viral influenza: pathogenesis, epidemiology and control". Vaccine. 20 (25–26): 3068–87. doi:10.1016/S0264-410X(02)00254-2. PMID 12163258.
- ↑ Potter CW (October 2006). "A History of Influenza". J Appl Microbiol. 91 (4): 572–79. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2672.2001.01492.x. PMID 11576290.
- ↑ "Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza". World Health Organization. 14 October 2005. Archived from the original on 23 September 2009. Retrieved 26 September 2009.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 Valleron AJ, Cori A, Valtat S, Meurisse S, Carrat F, Boëlle PY (May 2010). "Transmissibility and geographic spread of the 1889 influenza pandemic". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 107 (19): 8778–81. Bibcode:2010PNAS..107.8778V. doi:10.1073/pnas.1000886107. PMC 2889325. PMID 20421481.
- ↑ Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M (December 2004). "Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza". Nature. 432 (7019): 904–06. Bibcode:2004Natur.432..904M. doi:10.1038/nature03063. PMC 7095078. PMID 15602562.
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 Biggerstaff, Matthew; Cauchemez, Simon; Reed, Carrie; Gambhir, Manoj; Finelli, Lyn (2014-09-04). "Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature". BMC Infectious Diseases. 14 (1): 480. doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480. ISSN 1471-2334. PMC 4169819. PMID 25186370.
- ↑ Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (January 2006). "1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics". Emerging Infectious Diseases. 12 (1): 15–22. doi:10.3201/eid1201.050979. PMC 3291398. PMID 16494711.
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 "Report of the Review Committee on the Functioning of the International Health Regulations (2005) in relation to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009" (PDF). 2011-05-05. p. 37. Archived (PDF) from the original on 14 May 2015. Retrieved 1 March 2015.
- ↑ Organization, World Health (2009). Pandemic influenza preparedness and response : a who guidance document 2009 (PDF). p. 13. ISBN 9789241547680.
- ↑ Morens, David M.; Fauci, Anthony S. (2007-04-01). "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Insights for the 21st Century". The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 195 (7): 1018–1028. doi:10.1086/511989. ISSN 0022-1899. PMID 17330793.
- ↑ Johnson, Niall P. A. S.; Mueller, Juergen (2002). "Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" influenza pandemic". Bulletin of the History of Medicine. 76 (1): 105–115. doi:10.1353/bhm.2002.0022. ISSN 0007-5140. PMID 11875246.
- ↑ "Why the coronavirus outbreak isn't likely to be a repeat of the 1918 Spanish flu". 6 March 2020.
- ↑ 13.00 13.01 13.02 13.03 13.04 13.05 13.06 13.07 13.08 13.09 13.10 13.11 Ribas Freitas, André Ricardo; Napimoga, Marcelo; Donalisio, Maria Rita (April 2020). "Assessing the severity of COVID-19". Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde (Epidemiology and Health Services). 29 (2): 5. doi:10.5123/S1679-49742020000200008. PMID 32267300.
- ↑ Donaldson LJ, Rutter PD, Ellis BM, et al. (December 2009). "Mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza in England: public health surveillance study". BMJ. 339: b5213. doi:10.1136/bmj.b5213. PMC 2791802. PMID 20007665.
- ↑ "First Global Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Mortality Released by CDC-Led Collaboration". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 25 June 2012. Retrieved 7 July 2012.
- ↑ Kelly, Heath; Peck, Heidi A.; Laurie, Karen L.; Wu, Peng; Nishiura, Hiroshi; Cowling, Benjamin J. (2011-08-05). "The Age-Specific Cumulative Incidence of Infection with Pandemic Influenza H1N1 2009 Was Similar in Various Countries Prior to Vaccination". PLOS ONE. 6 (8): e21828. Bibcode:2011PLoSO...621828K. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021828. ISSN 1932-6203. PMC 3151238. PMID 21850217.
- ↑ Dawood FS, Iuliano AD, Reed C, et al. (September 2012). "Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study". The Lancet. Infectious Diseases. 12 (9): 687–95. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4. PMID 22738893.
- ↑ Triggle, Nick (10 December 2009). "Swine flu less lethal than feared". BBC News. BBC News Online. Archived from the original on 13 December 2009. Retrieved 10 December 2009.
- ↑ "WHO Europe – Influenza". World Health Organization (WHO). June 2009. Archived from the original on 17 June 2009. Retrieved 12 June 2009.
- ↑ CDC (2019-10-28). "Key Facts About Influenza (Flu)". www.cdc.gov. citing Tokars, Olsen& Reed (2018). Retrieved 2020-03-10.
- ↑ Tokars, Jerome I.; Olsen, Sonja J.; Reed, Carrie (2018-05-02). "Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States". Clinical Infectious Diseases. 66 (10): 1511–1518. doi:10.1093/cid/cix1060. ISSN 1058-4838. PMC 5934309. PMID 29206909.
- ↑ "Influenza: Fact sheet". World Health Organization (WHO). 6 November 2018. Archived from the original on 17 December 2019. Retrieved 25 January 2020.
- ↑ "H1N1 fatality rates comparable to seasonal flu". The Malaysian Insider. Washington, D.C., USA. Reuters. 17 September 2009. Archived from the original on 20 October 2009. Retrieved 26 September 2009.
- ↑ CDC (2020-03-06). "Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved 2020-03-10.
- ↑ CDC (2020-02-28). "Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Archived from the original on 2020-08-01. Retrieved 2020-03-01.
- ↑ Grady, Denise (2020-02-29). "How Does the Coronavirus Compare to the Flu?". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-03-01.
- ↑ Li, Qun; Guan, Xuhua; Wu, Peng; Wang, Xiaoye; Zhou, Lei; Tong, Yeqing; Ren, Ruiqi; Leung, Kathy S.M.; Lau, Eric H.Y.; Wong, Jessica Y.; Xing, Xuesen (2020-01-29). "Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia". New England Journal of Medicine. 0 (13): 1199–1207. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2001316. ISSN 0028-4793. PMC 7121484. PMID 31995857.
- ↑ Fauci, Anthony S.; Lane, H. Clifford; Redfield, Robert R. (2020-02-28). "Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted". New England Journal of Medicine. 0 (13): 1268–1269. doi:10.1056/NEJMe2002387. ISSN 0028-4793. PMID 32109011.
- ↑ Wu, Joseph T.; Leung, Kathy; Leung, Gabriel M. (2020-02-29). "Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study". The Lancet. 395 (10225): 689–697. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9. ISSN 0140-6736. PMC 7159271. PMID 32014114.
- ↑ 30.0 30.1 30.2 "COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)". ArcGIS. Johns Hopkins University. Retrieved 11 June 2020.
- ↑ As COVID-19 has many mild and non-symptomatic infections that are not classified as 'cases', the WHO estimated in October 2020 that '% infected' was around 10% of the global population (c. 770 million). Source: https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/health/who-coronavirus-world-population-intl/index.html