Template:Comparison of influenzas and coronaviruses notable epidemics

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Notes

  • 1889-90 flu, People infected (est.) number : please review source. There are two diverging statements. 20–60% vs 60% (45–70%). Which one is more relevant ?
  • 1918 flu, people infected numbers (500 million), mortality rate (2~3%) contradict the deaths worldwite "20-100 million" statements. Review needed. Lead : Johnson NPAS, Mueller (2002) "Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918-1920 Spanish Influenza Pandemic".
  • Kilbourne, Edwin D. (2006). "Influenza Pandemics of the 20th Century". Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 12 (1): 9–14. doi:10.3201/eid1201.051254. PMC 3291411. PMID 16494710. : considers 1918, 1957, 1968 as pandemic ; 1947 (H1N1), 1976 (H1N1), 1977 (H1N1) as pseudopandemic.
  • Review and integrate exact values of transmisibility and severity from : Reed, Carrie; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Finelli, Lyn; Koonin, Lisa M.; Beauvais, Denise; Uzicanin, Amra; Plummer, Andrew; Bresee, Joe; Redd, Stephen C.; Jernigan, Daniel B. (2013). "Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics". Emerging Infectious Diseases. 19 (1): 85–91. doi:10.3201/eid1901.120124. ISSN 1080-6059. PMC 3557974. PMID 23260039.
  • 2019-2020 flu season in the USA :

Table

Comparison of notable modern influenza-like illnesses' epidemics: influenzas[1][2][3] and coronavirus ()

Name Date Dur. World pop. Subtype Reproduction rate Infected (est.) Deaths worldwide Case fatality rate Virality Severity
1889–90 flu pandemic[4] 1889–90 5y 1.53 billion Likely H3N8 or H2N2 2.10 (IQR, 1.9–2.4)[4] 20–60%[4] (300–900 million) 1 million 0.10–0.28%[4] Template:Unknown Template:Unknown
1918 Spanish flu[5] 1918–20 3y 1.80 billion H1N1 1.80 (IQR, 1.47–2.27)[6] 33% (500 million)[7] or >56% (>1 billion)[8] 20[8][9]–100[10][11] million 2–3%,[8] or ~4%, or ~10%[12] 5[13] ~7[13]
Asian flu 1957–58 3y 2.90 billion H2N2 1.65 (IQR, 1.53–1.70)[6] >17% (>500 million)[8] 1–4 million[8] <0.2%[8] 4[13] ~3.8[13]
Hong Kong flu 1968–69 2y 3.53 billion H3N2 1.80 (IQR, 1.56–1.85)[6] >14% (>500 million)[8] 1–4 million[8] <0.2%[8] 4[13] ~3[13]
2009 swine flu pandemic[14][15] 2009–10 2y 6.85 billion H1N1/09 1.46 (IQR, 1.30–1.70)[6] 11-21% (0.7–1.4 billion)[16] 151,700–575,400[17] 0.03%[18] 3[13] ~2.2[13]
Typical seasonal flu[t 1] Every year >500y 7.75 billion A/H3N2, A/H1N1, B, ... 1.28 (IQR, 1.19–1.37)[6] 5–15% (340 million – 1 billion)[19]
3–11% or 5–20%[20][21] (240 million–1.6 billion)
290,000–650,000/year[22] <0.1%[23] 1~3[13] 1~4[13]
2019–20 seasonal flu[24][25][t 2] 2019–20 6m 7.75 billion A(H1N1)pdm09, B/Victoria, A(H3N2) Template:Unknown 11%[t 2] (800 million; USA, 34-49 million[t 2]) 0.45-1.2 million (USA: 20–52,000[t 2]) ongoing Template:Unknown Template:Unknown
COVID-19 pandemic[26] 2019–20 < 1y 7.75 billion SARS-CoV-2 2.2 (95% CI:1.4–3.9)[27][28]

2.68 (95% CI:2.47–2.86)[29]

+0.5% (7,400,013[30][lower-alpha 1]) to 10% (770M)[31] 417,133[30][lower-alpha 1] Template:Percentage[30] 5[13] 4~7[13]
Notes
  1. Not necessarily pandemic, but included for comparison purposes.
  2. 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 Ongoing epidemic . Numbers based on USA's epidemic so far. See CDC 2019-20 influenza's source.

References

  1. Hilleman MR (August 2002). "Realities and enigmas of human viral influenza: pathogenesis, epidemiology and control". Vaccine. 20 (25–26): 3068–87. doi:10.1016/S0264-410X(02)00254-2. PMID 12163258.
  2. Potter CW (October 2006). "A History of Influenza". J Appl Microbiol. 91 (4): 572–79. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2672.2001.01492.x. PMID 11576290.
  3. "Ten things you need to know about pandemic influenza". World Health Organization. 14 October 2005. Archived from the original on 23 September 2009. Retrieved 26 September 2009.
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 Valleron AJ, Cori A, Valtat S, Meurisse S, Carrat F, Boëlle PY (May 2010). "Transmissibility and geographic spread of the 1889 influenza pandemic". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 107 (19): 8778–81. Bibcode:2010PNAS..107.8778V. doi:10.1073/pnas.1000886107. PMC 2889325. PMID 20421481.
  5. Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M (December 2004). "Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza". Nature. 432 (7019): 904–06. Bibcode:2004Natur.432..904M. doi:10.1038/nature03063. PMC 7095078. PMID 15602562.
  6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 Biggerstaff, Matthew; Cauchemez, Simon; Reed, Carrie; Gambhir, Manoj; Finelli, Lyn (2014-09-04). "Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature". BMC Infectious Diseases. 14 (1): 480. doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480. ISSN 1471-2334. PMC 4169819. PMID 25186370.
  7. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM (January 2006). "1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics". Emerging Infectious Diseases. 12 (1): 15–22. doi:10.3201/eid1201.050979. PMC 3291398. PMID 16494711.
  8. 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 "Report of the Review Committee on the Functioning of the International Health Regulations (2005) in relation to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009" (PDF). 2011-05-05. p. 37. Archived (PDF) from the original on 14 May 2015. Retrieved 1 March 2015.
  9. Organization, World Health (2009). Pandemic influenza preparedness and response : a who guidance document 2009 (PDF). p. 13. ISBN 9789241547680.
  10. Morens, David M.; Fauci, Anthony S. (2007-04-01). "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Insights for the 21st Century". The Journal of Infectious Diseases. 195 (7): 1018–1028. doi:10.1086/511989. ISSN 0022-1899. PMID 17330793.
  11. Johnson, Niall P. A. S.; Mueller, Juergen (2002). "Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918-1920 "Spanish" influenza pandemic". Bulletin of the History of Medicine. 76 (1): 105–115. doi:10.1353/bhm.2002.0022. ISSN 0007-5140. PMID 11875246.
  12. "Why the coronavirus outbreak isn't likely to be a repeat of the 1918 Spanish flu". 6 March 2020.
  13. 13.00 13.01 13.02 13.03 13.04 13.05 13.06 13.07 13.08 13.09 13.10 13.11 Ribas Freitas, André Ricardo; Napimoga, Marcelo; Donalisio, Maria Rita (April 2020). "Assessing the severity of COVID-19". Epidemiologia e Serviços de Saúde (Epidemiology and Health Services). 29 (2): 5. doi:10.5123/S1679-49742020000200008. PMID 32267300.
  14. Donaldson LJ, Rutter PD, Ellis BM, et al. (December 2009). "Mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza in England: public health surveillance study". BMJ. 339: b5213. doi:10.1136/bmj.b5213. PMC 2791802. PMID 20007665.
  15. "First Global Estimates of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Mortality Released by CDC-Led Collaboration". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 25 June 2012. Retrieved 7 July 2012.
  16. Kelly, Heath; Peck, Heidi A.; Laurie, Karen L.; Wu, Peng; Nishiura, Hiroshi; Cowling, Benjamin J. (2011-08-05). "The Age-Specific Cumulative Incidence of Infection with Pandemic Influenza H1N1 2009 Was Similar in Various Countries Prior to Vaccination". PLOS ONE. 6 (8): e21828. Bibcode:2011PLoSO...621828K. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021828. ISSN 1932-6203. PMC 3151238. PMID 21850217.
  17. Dawood FS, Iuliano AD, Reed C, et al. (September 2012). "Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: a modelling study". The Lancet. Infectious Diseases. 12 (9): 687–95. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4. PMID 22738893.
  18. Triggle, Nick (10 December 2009). "Swine flu less lethal than feared". BBC News. BBC News Online. Archived from the original on 13 December 2009. Retrieved 10 December 2009.
  19. "WHO Europe – Influenza". World Health Organization (WHO). June 2009. Archived from the original on 17 June 2009. Retrieved 12 June 2009.
  20. CDC (2019-10-28). "Key Facts About Influenza (Flu)". www.cdc.gov. citing Tokars, Olsen& Reed (2018). Retrieved 2020-03-10.
  21. Tokars, Jerome I.; Olsen, Sonja J.; Reed, Carrie (2018-05-02). "Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States". Clinical Infectious Diseases. 66 (10): 1511–1518. doi:10.1093/cid/cix1060. ISSN 1058-4838. PMC 5934309. PMID 29206909.
  22. "Influenza: Fact sheet". World Health Organization (WHO). 6 November 2018. Archived from the original on 17 December 2019. Retrieved 25 January 2020.
  23. "H1N1 fatality rates comparable to seasonal flu". The Malaysian Insider. Washington, D.C., USA. Reuters. 17 September 2009. Archived from the original on 20 October 2009. Retrieved 26 September 2009.
  24. CDC (2020-03-06). "Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved 2020-03-10.
  25. CDC (2020-02-28). "Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Archived from the original on 2020-08-01. Retrieved 2020-03-01.
  26. Grady, Denise (2020-02-29). "How Does the Coronavirus Compare to the Flu?". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-03-01.
  27. Li, Qun; Guan, Xuhua; Wu, Peng; Wang, Xiaoye; Zhou, Lei; Tong, Yeqing; Ren, Ruiqi; Leung, Kathy S.M.; Lau, Eric H.Y.; Wong, Jessica Y.; Xing, Xuesen (2020-01-29). "Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia". New England Journal of Medicine. 0 (13): 1199–1207. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2001316. ISSN 0028-4793. PMC 7121484. PMID 31995857.
  28. Fauci, Anthony S.; Lane, H. Clifford; Redfield, Robert R. (2020-02-28). "Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted". New England Journal of Medicine. 0 (13): 1268–1269. doi:10.1056/NEJMe2002387. ISSN 0028-4793. PMID 32109011.
  29. Wu, Joseph T.; Leung, Kathy; Leung, Gabriel M. (2020-02-29). "Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study". The Lancet. 395 (10225): 689–697. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30260-9. ISSN 0140-6736. PMC 7159271. PMID 32014114.
  30. 30.0 30.1 30.2 "COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)". ArcGIS. Johns Hopkins University. Retrieved 11 June 2020.
  31. As COVID-19 has many mild and non-symptomatic infections that are not classified as 'cases', the WHO estimated in October 2020 that '% infected' was around 10% of the global population (c. 770 million). Source: https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/health/who-coronavirus-world-population-intl/index.html
  1. 1.0 1.1 Data as of 11 June 2020.